Silver\u2019s research shows that Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven swing states in November. This is the most likely outcome. The forecast also says that Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning all the battleground states.<\/p>\n
It also shows that Harris would win the race if she won all the swing states except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead.<\/p>\n
His model, on the other hand, says that this is only 1.7% likely to happen. On the other hand, it\u2019s 3.4% likely that Harris will win Georgia but not Arizona, and 2.9% likely that the Democrats will win Arizona but not Georgia.<\/p>\n
The model shows that there is a 4.6% chance that the Republicans will win every swing state except Nevada, where Harris is currently ahead by a very small amount. In this case, Trump would win the election because the vice president would get 232 electoral college votes.<\/p>\n
Silver\u2019s overall prediction shows that Harris is most likely to win when Democrats win between three and five of the key states.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s how many electoral college votes the vice president would need to win if she only won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That\u2019s an 86.2 percent chance of winning overall.<\/p>\n
Polls show that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.<\/p>\n
A tracker from FiveThirtyEight says the former president is ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but a tracker from Silver says the state is tied.<\/p>\n
The prediction from Silver says that Harris has a 0.6% chance of winning the race if she only wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she gets Pennsylvania, her chances go up to 98.9 percent. Silver\u2019s model, on the other hand, says that this unlikely event is only 2.9% likely to happen.<\/p>\n
In the last two weeks, expectations for the electoral college have changed to show that Trump is more likely to win than Harris. As an example, Silver currently thinks that Trump has a 53.1% chance of getting the Electoral College vote, while Harris only thinks that Trump has a 46.6% chance.<\/p>\n
FiveThirtyEight\u2019s prediction has also changed in Trump\u2019s favor. It now says that Trump has a 51% chance of winning the election, while Harris only has a 49% chance.<\/p>\n
At the same time, RealClearPolitics predicts that Trump will win all four swing states, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris\u2019s 227.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Silver\u2019s research shows that Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven swing states in November. This is the most likely outcome. The forecast also says that Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning all the battleground states. It also shows that Harris would win the race if she won all the swing states…<\/p>\n