Trump lost Pennsylvania by just 80,000 votes in 2020 and many believe the Keystone State could determine who wins the presidential race.

The data shows an alarming disparity: Democrats had 1,101,962 mail-in ballot requests at this point in 2020, compared to 798,946 in 2024.

Republicans, on the other side, currently have 321,077 requests, down from 376,956 in 2020. The figures show that Trump is gaining ground in a state that he must win.

Republican Cliff Maloney highlighted the significance of this change by writing on X that the decline in Democratic mail-in requests could be “suicidal for Kamala.

Pennsylvania was a crucial swing state in each of the previous two presidential elections.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by a slim margin, securing the state’s 20 electoral votes with approximately 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton.

In 2020, Joe Biden flipped the state back to blue, defeating Trump by around 80,000 votes.

This comes as Trump looks to have made impressive gains over Kamala Harris, gaining roughly 14 points among independents and 19 points among Latino voters.

According to new polling from NPR/PBS News/Marist, Trump has surpassed Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, 49% to 46%. This represents a considerable increase since August, when Trump trailed Harris, 59, by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had received 12% of the vote in the previous survey, withdrew from the contest and endorsed Trump in the interim between the August and September polls. Furthermore, Harris’s “honeymoon” following her sudden ascent to the nomination has started to level out.

In August, Trump led Harris by fifteen points, 54% to 39%, among Latino voters; by now, Trump leads by four points, with 51% of the vote to Harris’s 47%.

“When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky-high because the contest is so close,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, explained.

“Only single digits separate the candidates on most issues important to voters. But voters who value honesty are overwhelmingly for Harris, and voters looking for strong leadership are mostly in Trump’s corner. Will this still be the case on Wednesday morning?”

According to the poll, almost 70% of Americans said they would watch the debate, and 30% of registered voters think it would influence their decision on who to support. However, 69% of respondents say it probably won’t be beneficial.

In another encouraging development for Trump, he narrowed the deficit against Harris in a national contest by two points, with the vice president barely edging him.

In the most recent survey of those registered to vote in a contest with several candidates, Harris defeated Trump 49% to 48%. When registered voters were pitted against multiple candidates back in August, Harris was leading 48% to 45%.

In contrast, among registered voters, Trump defeated President Biden 43% to 42% in the July survey.

In the September survey, Harris’ margin over Trump among those who were certain to vote increased to 51% to 48%.

According to the September results, Harris leads Trump by 15 points among women and by 12 points among males.

In the multi-candidate race, Harris received 74% of the support of black voters, while Trump received only 24% of the vote.

During an interview on Fox & Friends, Trump blasted ABC News, accusing the first debate moderators, David Muir and Linsey Davis, of ganging up on him while giving Harris a pass all night on her arguments.

Taylor Swift—who described herself as a “childless cat lady”—also announcedwho she would be endorsing just minutes after the presidential debate on Tuesday night between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.