“While the electorate could certainly have shifted from the 2020 presidential contest—and no U.S. election is the same—the data suggests President Donald J. Trump holds leads in all but one of the seven states, which would result in a significant Electoral College victory,” the National Pulse reported, citing the polling data.

According to the data, Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by 4.2 points. He also leads Harris in North Carolina by 3.7 points and in Nevada by 3.6 points.

The presidential race is tighter in the remaining battleground states, with Trump leading Harris by 2.3 points in Georgia.

In Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump has a slight edge over Harris, leading by just 1.5 and 0.6 points, respectively.

In Wisconsin, however, the America First leader narrowly trails his Democratic opponent by a mere 0.2 points, the data show.

 

While the AtlasIntel survey indicates that electoral momentum is shifting in Trump’s favor, the narrow margins remain a concern for Republicans. Outside of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump and Harris are both within the margin of error.

In recent weeks, most polls have shown the race tightening and beginning to favor Trump. However, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee has yet to fully break away and establish a significant lead over Harris, the National Pulse noted further.

It remains uncertain whether recent polling has reflected any changes among voters following President Joe Biden’s remarks on Tuesday during a Harris campaign event, where he referred to tens of millions of Trump supporters as “garbage.”

Additionally, in another gaffe during Harris’s campaign on Thursday, billionaire donor and campaign surrogate Mark Cuban suggested that women who support Trump are weak and unintelligent.

Still, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed to several factors during a network segment on Wednesday, indicating that Trump is very likely to defeat Harris.

Trump and Harris are currently in a tight race, with the former president holding a narrow lead over the vice president in six of the top seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics averages.

But on “CNN News Central,” Enten pointed out that voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, and high Republican registration numbers are all indicators that favor a Trump victory.

“Just 28% of Americans, voters, think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten said.

“That 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn’t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%. So, the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins,” he added.

“In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten noted further. “They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.”